Stocks may be rallying, but investors are making assumptions that public health experts warn about. Meanwhile, most financial experts believe China faces a short but sharper economic shock than originally thought. And China warns against an overreaction from other countries in the form of trade restrictions.
The Wall Street Journal: Beware Of Wall Street’s Armchair Epidemiologists
Investors and analysts are racing to figure out how far the coronavirus outbreak will spread and what its eventual impact will be. Unfortunately, many are making assumptions that actual disease experts caution against. Some of Wall Street’s reassuring statements about the epidemic could be wildly off, and so, too, their expectations of the economic disruption the virus could cause. As of Monday afternoon there were 40,787 confirmed cases of coronavirus around the world, according to Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering data: 40,196 in China’s mainland and 591 elsewhere. (Lahart, 2/11)
Reuters: ‘Everyone Is Guessing’ About Coronavirus Economic Impacts, Say Experts
The coronavirus that spread from a seafood market in Wuhan, China to infect tens of thousands has shuttered businesses, grounded flights and killed over 1,000 people so far, mostly in China. As the world’s second-largest economy struggles to get back to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday, analysts and bankers have been revisiting their estimates of the economic impact of the virus. (Kerber and Timmons, 2/12)
The Wall Street Journal: Travel Industry Set For Multibillion-Dollar Hit From Coronavirus
While the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. remains small, the reverberations of a worsening outbreak across the Pacific are being felt in the American tourism industry. Airlines have canceled flights between the world’s two biggest economies into April, and the U.S. has banned noncitizens who traveled recently to China from entry. That effective freeze on visitors from China is a blow to hotels, retailers and other businesses that have come to rely on their spending. (Morris and Hufford, 2/12)
Politico: China Warns Against Virus-Related Trade Restrictions
China warned other countries on Tuesday that an “overreaction” to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak through trade restrictions could have a negative impact on the global economy. Beijing made the statement at a meeting of the World Trade Organization, where it noted that it is a large contributor to global economic output and growth, according to a Geneva-based trade official. (Behsudi, 2/11)
This is part of the KHN Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
Syndicated from https://khn.org/morning-breakout/dont-look-at-wall-street-to-get-a-good-read-on-scope-of-covid-19-threat/